Athletics at Red Sox
Last play · Ceddanne Rafaela lines out to left fielder Jeff McNeil.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
ATH 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 2 – 3 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+195 / -211
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Max Muncy doubles (8) on a fly ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Donovan Walton scores. (inning 9) — -34% Athletics
9Max Muncy doubles (8) on a fly ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Donovan Walton scores.4–3
8Jonah Heim doubles (14) on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Jeff McNeil scores.3–3
5Wilyer Abreu out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Jake Rogers scores. Nick Sogard to 3rd.2–3
5Nick Sogard reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by pitcher J.T. Ginn. Eli White scores. Jake Rogers to 3rd. Nick Sogard to 2nd. Throwing error by pitcher J.T. Ginn.2–2
4Tommy White grounds out, shortstop Andruw Monasterio to first baseman Willson Contreras. Tyler Soderstrom scores.2–1
2Eli White singles on a line drive to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Willson Contreras scores. Anthony Seigler to 2nd.1–1
1Tyler Soderstrom grounds out to first baseman Willson Contreras. Henry Bolte scores. Jacob Wilson to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
