D-backs at Red Sox
AZ4–
BOS9Last play · Jose Fernandez grounds into a double play, shortstop Andruw Monasterio to first baseman Willson Contreras. James McCann out at 2nd. Jose Fernandez out at 1st.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
AZ 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 4 – 6 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+148 / -159
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gabriel Moreno hits a grand slam (10) to center field. Ryan Waldschmidt scores. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Corbin Carroll scores. (inning 3) — -42% D-backs
7Mickey Gasper singles on a line drive to left fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Jarren Duran scores.4–9
6Willson Contreras singles on a pop up to second baseman Ildemaro Vargas. Nick Sogard scores.4–8
6Mickey Gasper homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.4–7
5Andruw Monasterio singles on a ground ball to left fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Willson Contreras scores. Adley Rutschman out at home on the throw, left fielder Ryan Waldschmidt to catcher James McCann.4–6
3Andruw Monasterio pops out to second baseman Ildemaro Vargas.4–5
3Adley Rutschman homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.4–4
3Gabriel Moreno hits a grand slam (10) to center field. Ryan Waldschmidt scores. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Corbin Carroll scores.4–3
1Caleb Durbin out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Wilyer Abreu scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.