D-backs at Red Sox
Last play · Caleb Durbin pops out to first baseman Tim Tawa.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
AZ 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 3 – 2 BOS
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+148 / -159
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mickey Gasper homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Wilyer Abreu scores. Willson Contreras scores. (inning 6) — +43% Red Sox
10Willson Contreras grounds out, third baseman Jose Fernandez to first baseman Tim Tawa. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.7–6
10Jose Fernandez walks. Max Kepler scores. Tim Tawa to 3rd. James McCann to 2nd.7–5
10Nolan Arenado singles on a line drive to shortstop Andruw Monasterio. Gabriel Moreno scores.6–5
6Mickey Gasper homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Wilyer Abreu scores. Willson Contreras scores.5–5
6Lars Nootbaar homers (4) on a line drive to right center field. Nolan Arenado scores.5–2
5Gabriel Moreno doubles (26) on a line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Ryan Waldschmidt scores. Corbin Carroll scores.3–2
5Ryan Waldschmidt doubles (14) on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Jose Fernandez scores.1–2
3Jarren Duran homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
