Giants at Red Sox
Last play · Jonah Cox strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
SF 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 4 – 5 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 47.1% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+163 / -176
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willson Contreras homers (26) on a fly ball to left field. Nick Sogard scores. Wilyer Abreu scores. (inning 3) — +38% Red Sox
6Wilyer Abreu triples (4) on a line drive to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Nick Sogard scores.4–6
4Rafael Devers homers (26) on a fly ball to center field.4–5
4Drew Gilbert homers (7) on a line drive to right field. Christian Koss scores.3–5
3Mickey Gasper hit by pitch. Caleb Durbin scores. Jarren Duran to 3rd. Andruw Monasterio to 2nd.1–5
3Andruw Monasterio walks. Adley Rutschman scores. Caleb Durbin to 3rd. Jarren Duran to 2nd.1–4
3Willson Contreras homers (26) on a fly ball to left field. Nick Sogard scores. Wilyer Abreu scores.1–3
3Bryce Eldridge singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Christian Koss scores. Rafael Devers to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
