Giants at Red Sox
Last play · Jonah Cox strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
SF 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 3 – 5 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.3% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+187 / -201
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Red Sox challenged (catch or drop), call on the field was overturned: Connor Wong doubles (11) on a fly ball to left fielder Victor Bericoto. Nick Sogard scores. (inning 4) — +16% Red Sox
7Christian Koss singles on a ground ball to shortstop Andruw Monasterio. Christian Koss scores. Throwing error by shortstop Andruw Monasterio. Throwing error by right fielder Wilyer Abreu.4–5
4Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a line drive to center fielder Jonah Cox. Mickey Gasper scores.3–5
4Mickey Gasper doubles (7) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Connor Wong scores.3–4
4Red Sox challenged (catch or drop), call on the field was overturned: Connor Wong doubles (11) on a fly ball to left fielder Victor Bericoto. Nick Sogard scores.3–3
3Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jonah Cox. Jahmai Jones scores.3–2
2Nick Sogard homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.3–1
2Jonah Cox homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.3–0
1Victor Bericoto singles on a ground ball to left fielder Eli White. Willy Adames scores. Bryce Eldridge to 2nd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
