Mariners at Red Sox
SEA8–
BOS9Last play · Trevor Story singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Eli White scores. Caleb Durbin to 3rd. Jarren Duran to 2nd.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
SEA 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 3 – 5 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+138 / -148
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ceddanne Rafaela out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Roman Anthony scores. (inning 9) — +42% Red Sox
10Trevor Story singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Eli White scores. Caleb Durbin to 3rd. Jarren Duran to 2nd.8–9
9Ceddanne Rafaela out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Roman Anthony scores.8–8
8Trevor Story doubles (9) on a fly ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Nick Sogard scores. Caleb Durbin scores.8–7
7Cal Raleigh homers (20) on a fly ball to left field.8–5
6Dominic Canzone doubles (22) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. J.P. Crawford scores. Randy Arozarena scores.7–5
6Randy Arozarena singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Cole Young scores. Weston Wilson scores. J.P. Crawford to 3rd.5–5
5Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Connor Wong scores. Roman Anthony scores.3–5
5Randy Arozarena singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Cole Young scores. Weston Wilson to 3rd. J.P. Crawford to 2nd.3–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.