Mariners at Red Sox
Last play · Isiah Kiner-Falefa grounds out, second baseman Cole Young to first baseman Josh Naylor.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
SEA 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 9 – 1 BOS
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 52.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-101 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Randy Arozarena homers (22) on a fly ball to left field. Lazaro Montes scores. Brock Rodden scores. (inning 2) — -18% Mariners
9Jahmai Jones homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Roman Anthony scores.9–6
7Eli White doubles (7) on a line drive to left fielder Victor Robles. Connor Wong scores. Mickey Gasper scores.9–4
6Caleb Durbin reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Brock Rodden. Wilyer Abreu scores. Caleb Durbin to 2nd.9–2
5Lazaro Montes homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.9–1
4Cal Raleigh doubles (10) on a fly ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Julio Rodríguez scores.8–1
3Lazaro Montes singles on a ground ball to right fielder Roman Anthony. Josh Naylor scores. Cole Young to 2nd.7–1
2Randy Arozarena homers (22) on a fly ball to left field. Lazaro Montes scores. Brock Rodden scores.6–1
2Brock Rodden singles on a ground ball to second baseman Nick Sogard. Cole Young scores. Lazaro Montes to 2nd.3–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
