Pirates at Cubs
Last play · Carson Kelly singles on a line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Scott Kingery scores. Ian Happ to 3rd. Seiya Suzuki to 2nd.
Win probability
Cubs100%
PIT 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 6 – 3 CHC
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
12.5
opened 12 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Busch singles on a line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Seiya Suzuki scores. Dansby Swanson scores. Michael Busch to 2nd. Throwing error by left fielder Bryan Reynolds. (inning 8) — +45% Cubs
9Carson Kelly singles on a line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Scott Kingery scores. Ian Happ to 3rd. Seiya Suzuki to 2nd.6–7
8Michael Busch singles on a line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Seiya Suzuki scores. Dansby Swanson scores. Michael Busch to 2nd. Throwing error by left fielder Bryan Reynolds.6–6
7Alex Bregman pops out to second baseman Brandon Lowe on the infield fly rule. Dansby Swanson scores.6–4
5Alex Bregman out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Nico Hoerner scores.6–3
5Brandon Lowe homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.6–2
3Moisés Ballesteros homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.5–2
3Dansby Swanson homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.5–1
2Brandon Lowe hits a grand slam (4) to right center field. Marcell Ozuna scores. Spencer Horwitz scores. Konnor Griffin scores.5–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
