Pirates at Cubs
Last play · Michael Busch strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cubs0%
PIT 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 0 CHC
Tied through 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 52.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+129 / -156
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryan Reynolds homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Ryan O'Hearn scores. (inning 7) — -31% Pirates
7Bryan Reynolds homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Ryan O'Hearn scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
