Mets at Cubs
Last play · Tyrone Taylor flies out to shortstop Dansby Swanson.
Win probability
Cubs100%
NYM 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 1 CHC
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carson Kelly homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Ian Happ scores. Seiya Suzuki scores. (inning 6) — +36% Cubs
8Mets challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Francisco Alvarez reaches on a throwing error by second baseman Nico Hoerner. Bo Bichette scores. Luis Robert Jr. to 2nd.2–4
6Carson Kelly homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Ian Happ scores. Seiya Suzuki scores.1–4
2Ian Happ homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
2Mark Vientos homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
