Mets at Cubs
Last play · Bo Bichette grounds into a double play, shortstop Dansby Swanson to second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch. Tyrone Taylor out at 2nd. Bo Bichette out at 1st.
Win probability
Cubs100%
NYM 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 3 – 7 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyrone Taylor singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. MJ Melendez scores. Marcus Semien scores. Tyrone Taylor out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong to second baseman Nico Hoerner. (inning 2) — -18% Mets
8Ian Happ homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Michael Busch scores.4–12
8Francisco Alvarez singles on a ground ball to third baseman Alex Bregman. Francisco Lindor scores.4–10
7Dansby Swanson out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Tyrone Taylor. Carson Kelly scores. Throwing error by left fielder Tyrone Taylor.3–10
7Matt Shaw doubles (5) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Seiya Suzuki scores.3–8
4Ian Happ reaches on a fielding error by first baseman Brett Baty. Dansby Swanson scores. Nico Hoerner to 3rd. Michael Busch to 2nd.3–7
2Nico Hoerner homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Dansby Swanson scores.3–6
2Tyrone Taylor singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. MJ Melendez scores. Marcus Semien scores. Tyrone Taylor out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong to second baseman Nico Hoerner.3–4
2Marcus Semien doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Francisco Alvarez scores. MJ Melendez to 3rd.1–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
