Phillies at Cubs
Last play · Kyle Schwarber pops out to catcher Miguel Amaya in foul territory.
Win probability
Cubs100%
PHI 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 5 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dansby Swanson homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Moisés Ballesteros scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. (inning 2) — +21% Cubs
4Justin Crawford doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Bryson Stott scores.1–5
3Michael Conforto out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Justin Crawford. Michael Busch scores.0–5
2Dansby Swanson homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Moisés Ballesteros scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.0–4
2Miguel Amaya grounds into a double play, third baseman Alec Bohm to second baseman Bryson Stott to first baseman Bryce Harper. Ian Happ scores. Moisés Ballesteros to 3rd. Michael Conforto out at 2nd. Miguel Amaya out at 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
