Mets at Cubs
Last play · Nico Hoerner out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Tyrone Taylor. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.
Win probability
Cubs100%
NYM 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 0 CHC
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Conforto doubles (3) on a line drive to right fielder Tyrone Taylor. Scott Kingery scores. (inning 9) — +42% Cubs
10Nico Hoerner out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Tyrone Taylor. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.1–2
9Michael Conforto doubles (3) on a line drive to right fielder Tyrone Taylor. Scott Kingery scores.1–1
5MJ Melendez homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
