Phillies at Cubs
Last play · Trea Turner pops out to shortstop Dansby Swanson.
Win probability
Cubs100%
PHI 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 0 – 1 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Busch singles on a fly ball to center fielder Brandon Marsh. Nico Hoerner scores. Ian Happ scores. Carson Kelly to 3rd. (inning 6) — +31% Cubs
9Alec Bohm out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Adolis García scores.4–7
8Nico Hoerner hit by pitch.3–7
8Bryce Harper homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Kyle Schwarber scores.3–6
7Seiya Suzuki homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Alex Bregman scores.1–6
7Nico Hoerner homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.1–4
6Michael Busch singles on a fly ball to center fielder Brandon Marsh. Nico Hoerner scores. Ian Happ scores. Carson Kelly to 3rd.1–3
6Kyle Schwarber homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
5Moisés Ballesteros walks. Ian Happ scores. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd. Dansby Swanson to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
