Phillies at Cubs
Last play · Dansby Swanson singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Adolis García. Ian Happ scores. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd. Carson Kelly to 2nd.
Win probability
Cubs100%
PHI 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 2 – 5 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Adolis García homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 9) — -41% Phillies
10Dansby Swanson singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Adolis García. Ian Happ scores. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd. Carson Kelly to 2nd.7–8
9Adolis García homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.7–7
8Seiya Suzuki homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.6–7
8Edmundo Sosa singles on a ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Dylan Moore scores. Brandon Marsh to 3rd.6–6
7Garrett Stubbs out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Matt Shaw. Alec Bohm scores.5–6
7Justin Crawford reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Alex Bregman. Bryson Stott scores. Alec Bohm to 3rd. Justin Crawford to 2nd.4–6
7Brandon Marsh homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.3–6
6Michael Busch grounds out to first baseman Bryce Harper. Ian Happ scores. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd. Carson Kelly to 2nd.2–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
