Phillies at Cubs
Last play · Miguel Amaya challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Rafael Marchán called out on strikes.
Win probability
Cubs100%
PHI 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 2 – 6 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+159 / -193
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Justin Crawford grounds out, second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch. Alec Bohm scores. Edmundo Sosa to 3rd. (inning 2) — -15% Phillies
8Pete Crow-Armstrong singles on a fly ball to center fielder Justin Crawford. Moisés Ballesteros scores.2–7
5Seiya Suzuki homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Ian Happ scores.2–6
3Michael Busch homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.2–4
3Ian Happ singles on a line drive to left fielder Kyle Schwarber. Alex Bregman scores.2–3
2Pete Crow-Armstrong doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Miguel Amaya scores.2–2
2Justin Crawford grounds out, second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch. Alec Bohm scores. Edmundo Sosa to 3rd.2–1
2Edmundo Sosa doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Felix Reyes scores. Alec Bohm to 3rd.1–1
1Ian Happ grounds into a force out, second baseman Edmundo Sosa to shortstop Trea Turner. Nico Hoerner scores. Alex Bregman out at 2nd. Ian Happ to 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
