D-backs at Cubs
AZ5–
CHC6Last play · Gabriel Moreno strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cubs100%
AZ 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 1 – 6 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Geraldo Perdomo homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Tim Tawa scores. Jorge Barrosa scores. (inning 6) — -26% D-backs
6Geraldo Perdomo homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Tim Tawa scores. Jorge Barrosa scores.5–6
6Jorge Barrosa doubles (9) on a bunt ground ball to third baseman Alex Bregman. Jose Fernandez scores. Tim Tawa to 3rd.2–6
4Alex Bregman doubles (4) on a line drive to left fielder Jorge Barrosa. Dansby Swanson scores.1–6
4Matt Shaw strikes out swinging.1–5
4Dansby Swanson singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jorge Barrosa. Carson Kelly scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 3rd.1–4
3Ildemaro Vargas singles on a ground ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Jorge Barrosa scores.1–3
1Carson Kelly singles on a fly ball to center fielder Alek Thomas. Ian Happ scores. Michael Busch to 3rd.0–3
1Michael Busch singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jorge Barrosa. Nico Hoerner scores. Alex Bregman scores. Ian Happ to 3rd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.