D-backs at Cubs
Last play · Lourdes Gurriel Jr. grounds out, shortstop Dansby Swanson to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Cubs100%
AZ 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 0 – 1 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 52.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+141 / -171
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ian Happ homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 2) — +15% Cubs
8Seiya Suzuki out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Ian Happ scores.0–2
2Ian Happ homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
