Reds at Cubs
Last play · Michael Conforto homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.
Win probability
Cubs100%
CIN 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 3 – 3 CHC
Tied through 5
Total runs
11.5
opened 11.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+183 / -225
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nico Hoerner out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder JJ Bleday. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. (inning 9) — +42% Cubs
9Michael Conforto homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.4–5
9Nico Hoerner out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder JJ Bleday. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.4–4
8Spencer Steer singles on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Blake Dunn scores. Spencer Steer to 2nd.4–3
4Seiya Suzuki homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. Alex Bregman scores. Ian Happ scores.3–3
4Ke'Bryan Hayes homers (2) on a line drive to left center field. Will Benson scores.3–0
3JJ Bleday homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
