Reds at Cubs
Last play · Michael Busch walks. Nico Hoerner scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd. Seiya Suzuki to 2nd.
Win probability
Cubs100%
CIN 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 2 – 4 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -169
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Carson Kelly scores. (inning 9) — +49% Cubs
10Michael Busch walks. Nico Hoerner scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd. Seiya Suzuki to 2nd.6–7
9Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Carson Kelly scores.6–6
9Elly De La Cruz out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Tyler Stephenson scores. Matt McLain scores.6–4
9JJ Bleday singles on a line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Will Benson scores. Tyler Stephenson to 3rd. Matt McLain to 2nd.4–4
9Spencer Steer homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.3–4
5Matt McLain homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.2–4
4Carson Kelly grounds into a double play, second baseman Matt McLain to shortstop Elly De La Cruz to first baseman Spencer Steer. Seiya Suzuki scores. Michael Busch out at 2nd. Carson Kelly out at 1st.1–4
4Seiya Suzuki doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Ian Happ scores.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
