Reds at Cubs
Last play · Michael Busch singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Dansby Swanson scores.
Win probability
Cubs100%
CIN 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 1 – 0 CHC
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+137 / -166
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Busch homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 8) — +32% Cubs
10Michael Busch singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Dansby Swanson scores.2–3
8Michael Busch homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.2–2
7Alex Bregman singles on a line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Nico Hoerner to 2nd.2–1
6Nathaniel Lowe homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.2–0
1JJ Bleday homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
