Reds at Cubs
Last play · Nathaniel Lowe challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Nathaniel Lowe called out on strikes.
Win probability
Cubs100%
CIN 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 0 – 8 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+169 / -207
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Conforto homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 2) — +10% Cubs
9JJ Bleday doubles (2) on a fly ball to shortstop Dansby Swanson. Sal Stewart scores. Tyler Stephenson to 3rd.3–8
8Blake Dunn homers (1) on a line drive to left center field.2–8
6Sal Stewart homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field.1–8
4Moisés Ballesteros out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder JJ Bleday. Nico Hoerner scores.0–8
4Nico Hoerner doubles (11) on a line drive to center fielder Dane Myers. Miguel Amaya scores. Nico Hoerner to 3rd.0–7
4Miguel Amaya singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Dansby Swanson scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.0–6
4Pete Crow-Armstrong singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Michael Conforto scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd.0–4
4Dansby Swanson grounds into a force out, fielded by third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes. Ian Happ scores. Michael Busch out at 3rd. Michael Conforto to 2nd. Dansby Swanson to 1st.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
