Brewers at Cubs
MIL9–
CHC3Last play · Nico Hoerner flies out to shortstop Joey Ortiz.
Win probability
Cubs0%
MIL 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 8 – 3 CHC
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 10.5
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Yelich homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 2) — -20% Brewers
6Christian Yelich doubles (3) on a fly ball to left fielder Ian Happ. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras to 3rd.9–3
5Michael Busch doubles (10) on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Chourio. Nico Hoerner scores.8–3
5Dansby Swanson homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Carson Kelly scores.8–2
5Jake Bauers homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Christian Yelich scores. Andrew Vaughn scores.8–0
4Jackson Chourio singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Sal Frelick scores. Joey Ortiz to 3rd.5–0
4Sal Frelick doubles (4) on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Andrew Vaughn scores. Jake Bauers scores.4–0
4Jake Bauers singles on a ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. William Contreras scores. Andrew Vaughn to 3rd.2–0
2Christian Yelich homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.