Brewers at Cubs
Last play · Alex Bregman called out on strikes.
Win probability
Cubs0%
MIL 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 4 – 0 CHC
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 47.9% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · David Hamilton singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Sal Frelick scores. Joey Ortiz scores. David Hamilton scores. Fielding error by center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. (inning 2) — -33% Brewers
7Jackson Chourio walks.5–0
3Jake Bauers singles on a ground ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. William Contreras scores.4–0
2David Hamilton singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Sal Frelick scores. Joey Ortiz scores. David Hamilton scores. Fielding error by center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
