Brewers at Cubs
Last play · Carson Kelly grounds out, shortstop Joey Ortiz to first baseman Jake Bauers.
Win probability
Cubs0%
MIL 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 3 – 0 CHC
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 53.1% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Garrett Mitchell singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras to 3rd. (inning 1) — -12% Brewers
8Seiya Suzuki reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Luis Rengifo. Miguel Amaya scores. Nico Hoerner to 3rd. Ian Happ to 2nd.5–2
8Nico Hoerner singles on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Miguel Amaya to 3rd.5–1
8Brice Turang homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. David Hamilton scores.5–0
3Jake Bauers singles on a line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. William Contreras scores. Garrett Mitchell to 3rd.3–0
3Garrett Mitchell walks.2–0
1Garrett Mitchell singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
