Athletics at Cubs
Last play · Ian Happ flies out to center fielder Henry Bolte.
Win probability
Cubs0%
ATH 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 2 – 1 CHC
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brent Rooker grounds out, third baseman Alex Bregman to first baseman Michael Busch. (inning 9) — -14% Athletics
4Zack Gelof singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Brent Rooker scores. Henry Bolte to 2nd.2–1
3Nick Kurtz homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
1Alex Bregman grounds out, third baseman Zack Gelof to first baseman Nick Kurtz. Nico Hoerner scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
