Astros at Cubs
Last play · Michael Busch lines out to left fielder Brice Matthews.
Win probability
Cubs0%
HOU 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 3 – 0 CHC
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Walker homers (12) on a line drive to left center field. Yordan Alvarez scores. (inning 1) — -21% Astros
4Christian Walker homers (13) on a line drive to left center field.3–0
1Christian Walker homers (12) on a line drive to left center field. Yordan Alvarez scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
