Giants at Cubs
SF18–
CHC3Last play · Alex Bregman grounds out, third baseman Buddy Kennedy to first baseman Victor Bericoto.
Win probability
Cubs0%
SF 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 9 – 0 CHC
Giants led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 11 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+134 / -162
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Chapman hits a grand slam (3) to center field. Luis Arraez scores. Willy Adames scores. Bryce Eldridge scores. (inning 4) — -23% Giants
9Casey Schmitt homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.18–3
9Jonah Cox homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.17–3
8Miguel Amaya doubles (3) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Eric Haase. Pedro Ramírez scores.16–3
8Seiya Suzuki homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field.16–2
6Carson Kelly singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Casey Schmitt. Seiya Suzuki scores. Pedro Ramírez to 2nd.16–1
6Matt Chapman homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Jung Hoo Lee scores. Bryce Eldridge scores.16–0
6Willy Adames homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Rafael Devers scores.13–0
6Luis Arraez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Casey Schmitt scores.11–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.