Athletics at Cubs
Last play · Alex Bregman lines out to right fielder Lawrence Butler.
Win probability
Cubs0%
ATH 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 2 – 4 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 51.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -148
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Kurtz singles on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Alika Williams scores. (inning 10) — -26% Athletics
10Nick Kurtz singles on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Alika Williams scores.5–4
8Athletics challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Tyler Soderstrom singles on a ground ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Shea Langeliers scores. Tyler Soderstrom out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Seiya Suzuki to shortstop Dansby Swanson.4–4
8Colby Thomas homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.3–4
4Michael Busch triples (2) on a line drive to right fielder Carlos Cortes. Ian Happ scores.2–4
3Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Nico Hoerner scores.2–3
2Seiya Suzuki homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.2–1
2Alika Williams singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Zack Gelof scores.2–0
1Tyler Soderstrom grounds into a force out, second baseman Nico Hoerner to shortstop Dansby Swanson. Carlos Cortes scores. Shea Langeliers out at 2nd. Tyler Soderstrom to 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
