Giants at Cubs
Last play · Michael Busch singles on a ground ball to right fielder Victor Bericoto. Dansby Swanson scores. Fielding error by right fielder Victor Bericoto.
Win probability
Cubs100%
SF 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 0 – 0 CHC
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 49.7% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 9) — +42% Cubs
10Michael Busch singles on a ground ball to right fielder Victor Bericoto. Dansby Swanson scores. Fielding error by right fielder Victor Bericoto.2–3
9Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.2–2
9Matt Chapman out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Jung Hoo Lee scores.2–1
6Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
6Rafael Devers homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
