Rockies at Cubs
Last play · Alex Bregman pops out to first baseman TJ Rumfield.
Win probability
Cubs0%
COL 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 5 – 2 CHC
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 10
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+172 / -211
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · TJ Rumfield homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field. Willi Castro scores. (inning 4) — -26% Rockies
5Willi Castro grounds out, shortstop Dansby Swanson to first baseman Michael Busch. Ezequiel Tovar scores. Jake McCarthy to 3rd.5–2
4TJ Rumfield homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field. Willi Castro scores.3–2
4Willi Castro doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Jake McCarthy scores.1–2
2Dansby Swanson grounds out, shortstop Ezequiel Tovar to first baseman TJ Rumfield.0–2
1Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (14) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
