Blue Jays at Cubs
Last play · Pedro Ramírez grounds out, second baseman Davis Schneider to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win probability
Cubs0%
TOR 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 3 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 51.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+118 / -142
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kazuma Okamoto homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field. Yohendrick Piñango scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. (inning 8) — -47% Blue Jays
8Nico Hoerner grounds into a force out, shortstop Ernie Clement to second baseman Davis Schneider. Miguel Amaya scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd. Pete Crow-Armstrong out at 2nd. Nico Hoerner to 1st.8–6
8Kazuma Okamoto homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field. Yohendrick Piñango scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.8–5
8Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. George Springer scores. Yohendrick Piñango to 2nd.5–5
8Alejandro Kirk singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Ian Happ. Myles Straw scores. George Springer to 2nd.4–5
7Daulton Varsho homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Kazuma Okamoto scores.3–5
6Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. Dansby Swanson scores.0–5
2Matt Shaw homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Alex Bregman scores. Ian Happ scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
