Blue Jays at Cubs
Last play · Pete Crow-Armstrong steals (29) 3rd base. Seiya Suzuki steals (2) 2nd base. Throwing error by catcher Brandon Valenzuela.
Win probability
Cubs100%
TOR 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 1 – 0 CHC
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-101 / -106
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alex Bregman homers (12) on a fly ball to left field. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. (inning 9) — +49% Cubs
11Pete Crow-Armstrong steals (29) 3rd base. Seiya Suzuki steals (2) 2nd base. Throwing error by catcher Brandon Valenzuela.2–3
9Alex Bregman homers (12) on a fly ball to left field. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.2–2
7Alejandro Kirk singles on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Andrés Giménez scores.2–0
1Nathan Lukes called out on strikes.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
