Blue Jays at Cubs
Last play · Alejandro Kirk strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cubs100%
TOR 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 1 – 7 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 52.3% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-101 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carson Kelly hits a grand slam (4) to left center field. Seiya Suzuki scores. Ian Happ scores. Matt Shaw scores. (inning 1) — +20% Cubs
7Pedro Ramírez singles on a line drive to left fielder Yohendrick Piñango, deflected by shortstop Andrés Giménez. Justin Dean scores.2–16
7Justin Dean triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Matt Shaw scores. Carson Kelly scores. Dansby Swanson scores.2–15
7Carson Kelly singles on a soft ground ball to pitcher Tyler Rogers. Ian Happ scores. Matt Shaw to 3rd.2–12
6Alex Bregman grounds into a force out, third baseman Kazuma Okamoto to second baseman Davis Schneider. Carson Kelly scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd. Pete Crow-Armstrong out at 2nd. Alex Bregman to 1st.2–11
6Pete Crow-Armstrong singles on a line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Nico Hoerner scores. Carson Kelly to 3rd. Dansby Swanson to 2nd.2–10
6Alejandro Kirk challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Dansby Swanson walks. Ian Happ scores. Nico Hoerner to 3rd. Carson Kelly to 2nd.2–9
6Carson Kelly walks. Seiya Suzuki scores. Ian Happ to 3rd. Nico Hoerner to 2nd.2–8
6George Springer homers (8) on a fly ball to left field.2–7
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
