Padres at Cubs

Scoreboard

SD7–CHC9

Final

OverviewPitchingBattingBox Score

Line score

Wrigley Field · SD 43-41 · CHC 48-38

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
SD	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	4	0	7	13	1
CHC	1	4	0	0	3	1	0	0	·	9	13	0

Last play · Jackson Merrill flies out to left fielder Ian Happ.

Win probability

Cubs100%

SD 0%CHC 100%

First 5 (F5)

final

SD 3 – 8 CHC

Cubs led after 5

The book's line

DraftKings · prices only

Total runs

12

opened 11.5 ↑

fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%

Run line

-1.5

Moneyline

reference

+108 / -130

We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.

Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.

Win probability timeline

home WP · dots = scoring plays

Cubs favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓

Biggest swing · Alex Bregman homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Kevin Alcántara scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. (inning 2) — +21% Cubs

Scoring plays

SD–CHC · 8 total

8Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.7–9

8Gavin Sheets homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Ty France scores. Xander Bogaerts scores.6–9

6Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field.3–9

5Dansby Swanson homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field. Ian Happ scores.3–8

5Michael Busch homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.3–6

3Manny Machado homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. Freddy Fermin scores.3–5

2Alex Bregman homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Kevin Alcántara scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.1–5

2Dansby Swanson homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.1–2

Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.