Padres at Cubs
SD3–
CHC23Last play · Samad Taylor grounds out, shortstop Dansby Swanson to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Cubs100%
SD 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 13 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
12
opened 11.5 ↑
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Seiya Suzuki homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Alex Bregman scores. (inning 1) — +24% Cubs
8Michael Busch homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field.3–23
8Dansby Swanson hits a grand slam (16) to left center field. Justin Dean scores. Michael Conforto scores. Miguel Amaya scores.3–22
8Miguel Amaya singles on a fly ball to right fielder Samad Taylor. Kevin Alcántara scores. Justin Dean to 3rd. Michael Conforto to 2nd.3–18
8Michael Conforto singles on a ground ball to right fielder Samad Taylor. Seiya Suzuki scores. Kevin Alcántara to 3rd. Justin Dean to 2nd.3–17
8Kevin Alcántara singles on a line drive to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Michael Busch scores. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd.3–16
8Miguel Andujar singles on a ground ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Samad Taylor scores.3–15
6Michael Conforto homers (7) on a line drive to left center field. Ian Happ scores.2–15
5Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (19) on a fly ball to right field. Miguel Amaya scores. Dansby Swanson scores.2–13
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.