Cardinals at Cubs
Last play · Pedro Ramírez lines out to first baseman Pedro Pagés.
Win probability
Cubs0%
STL 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 14 – 0 CHC
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 10.5
fair over 52.3% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathan Church homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. José Fermín scores. Blaze Jordan scores. (inning 2) — -33% Cardinals
7Alex Bregman doubles (12) on a ground ball to left fielder Bryan Torres. Pedro Ramírez scores.17–1
7Bryan Torres homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.17–0
6Iván Herrera singles on a ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Blaze Jordan scores. Nathan Church scores. JJ Wetherholt to 2nd.16–0
5Alec Burleson singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Iván Herrera scores. Jordan Walker scores. Nelson Velázquez to 3rd.14–0
5Nelson Velázquez walks. Blaze Jordan scores. Iván Herrera to 3rd. Jordan Walker to 2nd.12–0
4Masyn Winn homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Nelson Velázquez scores. Alec Burleson scores.11–0
4Alec Burleson singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Iván Herrera scores. Jordan Walker scores. Nelson Velázquez to 3rd.8–0
3José Fermín doubles (8) on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Masyn Winn scores.6–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
