Cardinals at Cubs
Last play · Pedro Ramírez grounds into a double play, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Alec Burleson. Michael Conforto out at 2nd. Pedro Ramírez out at 1st.
Win probability
Cubs0%
STL 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 2 – 0 CHC
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Iván Herrera singles on a ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nathan Church scores. JJ Wetherholt to 2nd. (inning 3) — -12% Cardinals
8Alec Burleson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Michael Conforto. Jordan Walker scores.3–0
3Iván Herrera singles on a ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nathan Church scores. JJ Wetherholt to 2nd.2–0
1JJ Wetherholt homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
