Twins at Cubs
Last play · Kody Clemens strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cubs100%
MIN 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 1 – 5 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 9 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Miguel Amaya doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Nico Hoerner scores. Dansby Swanson scores. (inning 2) — +20% Cubs
7Pedro Ramírez singles on a line drive to right fielder Austin Martin. Michael Busch scores. Nico Hoerner to 3rd.2–6
7Kody Clemens homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field.2–5
3Pedro Ramírez hits a ground-rule double (4) on a fly ball down the left-field line. Ian Happ scores. Nico Hoerner to 3rd.1–5
3Nico Hoerner singles on a line drive to right fielder Austin Martin. Seiya Suzuki scores. Ian Happ to 3rd.1–4
2Miguel Amaya doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Nico Hoerner scores. Dansby Swanson scores.1–3
2Kody Clemens homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
1Michael Busch homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
