Tigers at Cubs
Last play · Carson Kelly grounds out, third baseman Kevin McGonigle to first baseman Spencer Torkelson.
Win probability
Cubs0%
DET 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 4 – 3 CHC
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ian Happ homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field. Alex Bregman scores. (inning 8) — +45% Cubs
10Pedro Ramírez grounds into a force out, third baseman Kevin McGonigle to second baseman Hao-Yu Lee. Alex Bregman scores. Nico Hoerner out at 2nd. Pedro Ramírez to 1st.8–6
10Spencer Torkelson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Riley Greene scores. Dillon Dingler scores. Ben Malgeri to 3rd. Spencer Torkelson to 2nd.8–5
10Dillon Dingler singles on a ground ball to shortstop Dansby Swanson. Hao-Yu Lee scores. Riley Greene to 2nd.6–5
8Ian Happ homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field. Alex Bregman scores.5–5
8Dillon Dingler homers (21) on a fly ball to left center field.5–3
3Michael Busch homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.4–3
3Seiya Suzuki homers (16) on a fly ball to center field. Miguel Amaya scores.4–2
1Dillon Dingler homers (20) on a fly ball to center field.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
