Yankees at Cubs
Last play · Alex Bregman grounds out, pitcher David Bednar to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Win probability
Cubs0%
NYY 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 2 – 0 CHC
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+143 / -174
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Amed Rosario homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 4) — -14% Yankees
5Spencer Jones homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.2–0
4Amed Rosario homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
