Yankees at Cubs
Last play · José Caballero grounds out, second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Cubs100%
NYY 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 1 – 1 CHC
Tied through 5
Total runs
6
opened 7 ↓
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+103 / -124
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nico Hoerner homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 7) — +28% Cubs
8Michael Busch singles on a line drive to left fielder Spencer Jones. Alex Bregman scores. Carson Kelly to 2nd.2–5
7Yankees challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Seiya Suzuki singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Seiya Suzuki out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Trent Grisham to second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr.2–4
7Pete Crow-Armstrong triples (7) on a line drive to right fielder Jasson Domínguez. Pedro Ramírez scores.2–3
7Nico Hoerner homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.2–2
7Spencer Jones homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.2–1
5José Caballero singles on a line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Spencer Jones scores. Ali Sánchez to 3rd.1–1
1Alex Bregman flies out to center fielder Spencer Jones.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
