Yankees at Cubs
Last play · Michael Conforto called out on strikes.
Win probability
Cubs0%
NYY 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 2 – 1 CHC
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 52.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-114 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · José Caballero homers (11) on a fly ball to center field. Ryan McMahon scores. (inning 3) — -26% Yankees
4Michael Busch singles on a line drive to right fielder Jasson Domínguez. Seiya Suzuki scores.2–1
3José Caballero homers (11) on a fly ball to center field. Ryan McMahon scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
