Dodgers at Cubs
Last play · Alex Call lines out to shortstop Dansby Swanson.
Win probability
Cubs100%
LAD 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 4 – 7 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-186 / +174
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tommy Edman homers (3) on a line drive to left field. Shohei Ohtani scores. Andy Pages scores. (inning 1) — -28% Dodgers
6Michael Busch singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Seiya Suzuki scores. Carson Kelly to 3rd. Michael Busch to 2nd. Michael Busch advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by right fielder Kyle Tucker.5–10
6Carson Kelly challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Carson Kelly walks. Ian Happ scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 3rd. Seiya Suzuki to 2nd.5–8
6Teoscar Hernández homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.5–7
5Michael Busch homers (14) on a line drive to left center field.4–7
4Eliezer Alfonzo singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Kyle Tucker scores. Teoscar Hernández to 2nd. Fielding error by center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.4–6
3Carson Kelly homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Alex Bregman scores.3–6
2Kevin Alcántara homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Dansby Swanson scores.3–4
1Seiya Suzuki homers (19) on a line drive to left center field. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.3–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
