Dodgers at Cubs
Last play · Max Muncy flies out to left fielder Ian Happ.
Win probability
Cubs100%
LAD 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 1 – 1 CHC
Tied through 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nico Hoerner singles on a ground ball to second baseman Tommy Edman. Alex Bregman scores. Michael Busch to 2nd. (inning 6) — +19% Cubs
8Nico Hoerner homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.1–5
7Seiya Suzuki singles on a line drive to center fielder Andy Pages. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.1–4
7Pete Crow-Armstrong singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Dansby Swanson scores.1–3
6Nico Hoerner singles on a ground ball to second baseman Tommy Edman. Alex Bregman scores. Michael Busch to 2nd.1–2
3Dansby Swanson homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
2Kyle Tucker homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
