Cardinals at Cubs
Last play · Nathan Church lines out to second baseman Nico Hoerner.
Win probability
Cubs100%
STL 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 0 – 0 CHC
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+168 / -180
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Seiya Suzuki homers (21) on a fly ball to left center field. Tyrone Taylor scores. Dansby Swanson scores. (inning 6) — +36% Cubs
6Seiya Suzuki homers (21) on a fly ball to left center field. Tyrone Taylor scores. Dansby Swanson scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
