Cardinals at Cubs
Last play · Seiya Suzuki grounds out, third baseman Blaze Jordan to first baseman Alec Burleson.
Win probability
Cubs0%
STL 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 9 – 2 CHC
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 48.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+163 / -176
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (28) on a fly ball to right center field. James Triantos scores. (inning 3) — +23% Cubs
9Miguel Amaya homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.11–4
8Tyrone Taylor out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Nathan Church. Seiya Suzuki scores.11–3
8Jordan Walker doubles (26) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. JJ Wetherholt scores. Iván Herrera scores.11–2
4Jordan Walker homers (24) on a fly ball to center field. Alec Burleson scores.9–2
4Alec Burleson singles on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Blaze Jordan scores. JJ Wetherholt scores.7–2
4Iván Herrera out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Jimmy Crooks scores. Blaze Jordan to 3rd. JJ Wetherholt to 2nd.5–2
4Miguel Amaya challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: JJ Wetherholt walks. Masyn Winn scores. Jimmy Crooks to 3rd. Blaze Jordan to 2nd.4–2
3Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (28) on a fly ball to right center field. James Triantos scores.3–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
