White Sox at Cubs
Last play · Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (30) on a fly ball to right field. Carson Kelly scores.
Win probability
Cubs100%
CWS 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 3 – 4 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+158 / -170
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrew Benintendi homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Munetaka Murakami scores. (inning 8) — -52% White Sox
10Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (30) on a fly ball to right field. Carson Kelly scores.5–7
9Nico Hoerner singles on a line drive to center fielder Tristan Peters. Tyrone Taylor scores. Ian Happ to 3rd.5–5
8Andrew Benintendi homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Munetaka Murakami scores.5–4
5Nico Hoerner singles on a ground ball to third baseman Miguel Vargas. Seiya Suzuki scores. Ian Happ scores. Nico Hoerner to 2nd. Throwing error by third baseman Miguel Vargas.3–4
4Randal Grichuk homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Munetaka Murakami scores. Miguel Vargas scores.3–2
1Seiya Suzuki homers (22) on a fly ball to center field.0–2
1Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (29) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
