Reds at Cubs
Last play · Nico Hoerner flies out to left fielder TJ Friedl.
Win probability
Cubs0%
CIN 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 2 – 3 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+179 / -193
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Stephenson homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. Elly De La Cruz scores. Sal Stewart scores. (inning 6) — -28% Reds
9TJ Friedl homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.10–8
8Seiya Suzuki doubles (28) on a line drive to left fielder TJ Friedl. Matt Shaw scores.9–8
8Pedro Ramírez homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Ian Happ scores. Nico Hoerner scores.9–7
7Seiya Suzuki singles on a ground ball to shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Carson Kelly scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 2nd.9–4
7Elly De La Cruz singles on a ground ball to left fielder Ian Happ. Matt McLain scores. Héctor Rodríguez scores. Dane Myers to 2nd.9–3
6Tyler Stephenson homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. Elly De La Cruz scores. Sal Stewart scores.7–3
6Sal Stewart singles on a ground ball to shortstop Nico Hoerner. Héctor Rodríguez scores. Elly De La Cruz to 3rd.4–3
6Jose Trevino homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.3–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
