Reds at Cubs
CIN5–
CHC17Last play · Ivan Johnson strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cubs100%
CIN 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 5 – 10 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49.4% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+189 / -204
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eugenio Suárez homers (20) on a fly ball to center field. Tyler Stephenson scores. (inning 2) — -18% Reds
8Seiya Suzuki homers (23) on a fly ball to left field. Carson Kelly scores.5–17
8Carson Kelly doubles (13) on a line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Tyrone Taylor scores.5–15
7Nico Hoerner singles on a line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Seiya Suzuki scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd.5–14
7Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (36) on a fly ball to center field. Pedro Ramírez scores. Carson Kelly scores.5–13
5Carson Kelly homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Tyrone Taylor scores. Pedro Ramírez scores.5–10
5JJ Bleday out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Elly De La Cruz scores.5–7
4Alex Bregman singles on a line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Seiya Suzuki to 2nd.4–7
3Sal Stewart homers (30) on a fly ball to left center field. Elly De La Cruz scores.4–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.